7:50 – Nottingham – SIMPLY CARTONS LTD CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+) Good To Firm 5f13y
Four of the five runners in this Conditions Stakes race have winning chances but this is the first time that Dinkum Diamond has run in Good to Firm ground since he won a Class 3 Conditions Race at Newmarket last July and on the back of a decent effort at Sandown two starts back in a Group 3 contest the 4 year old bay colt could land his first win of the season.
Dinkum Diamond has won three times from 18 starts and has been placed on a further 8 occasions. He won at Listed level as a 2 year old and his last win was his run at Newmarket last July which was 8 runs back. Six of his eight subsequent runs have been in Pattern class races and although his most recent run was in Class 3 Conditions race the ground was riding Soft. As all three of his wins have come in Good to Firm ground the going would appear to be key to his chances. In fact in 7 runs in Good to Firm he has also been placed twice whereas in his 11 starts in anything softer than Good to Firm he has failed to win and finished placed just 6 times.
He runs over the minimum trip of 5 furlongs this evening and all three of his wins have come over the distance as well as 6 placed efforts from a total of 15 runs. He runs in a small field of 5 runners and it is interesting to note that 2 of his three wins came in fields of 6 and 7 runners with his other win in a field of 10 runners. He has only been out of the places three times in 11 runs in fields of 10 or less.
He is ridden by Cathy Gannon who rides Dinkum Diamond for the first time today. Cathy has not hit the heights of the last two seasons with only 28 winners on the board to date but she is riding well at the moment with 5 winners from 36 runners in August. She has also only ridden for Henry Candy who trains Dinkum Diamond four times this season and she has already won for the Kingston Warren based trainer at Goodwood on 1 August.
In what is a competitive race Dinkum Diamond probably has as good a chance as any of the other runners. Masamah will go off as favourite on the back of his 3rd place in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time but his profile is patchy this season and he carries 8lbs more than the selection. Dinkum Diamond may be slightly underestimated in that he has not won for over a year, but he has his favourite ground conditions this evening. His yard are also operating at a 20% winning strike rate month to date and with his jockey also riding well just now he could be waving goodbye to his 8 run loosing streak running over his best distance.
