3:25 – Ayr – WILLIAM HILL SUPPORTING DUMFRIES HOUSE AYRSHIRE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Heavy 1m
Trail Blaze comes into today’s race on the back of an incredible run of form. The 3 year old bay colt made his debut last year at Haydock in July when he finished 5th of 10 runners. Since then he has run 11 times, winning on 5 occasions and being placed on his other 6 runs. This season he has won 5 times from 8 starts and comes into this race on the back of his latest win at Thirsk 13 days ago.
The going at Ayr is Heavy with yesterday’s card cancelled as the course was waterlogged. Trail Blaze has never run in any ground quicker than Good and although he is yet to encounter heavy going he has won three times from seven runs in good to soft and soft ground. His half sisters on his sire’s side, Dragon Flyer, Duchess Dora and Red Millennium also have winning form in softer going as do his half brother King Ozzy and half sister Dixie Evans in his dam’s side, so he should act on the going based on his pedigree.
Trail Blaze runs over 1 mile today and in 5 starts over the trip he has won 3 times and been placed 2nd on his other 2 starts. Perhaps significantly, two of his wins over 1 mile have come in Good to Soft and Soft ground.
Trail Blaze is also the only 3 year old runner in the field and therefore he receives a weight allowance of 4lbs from the rest of the runners. Amy Ryan rides him again today and Amy has ridden his four times to date including his last two runs when he finished 2nd at Chester two runs back and his win at Thirsk on his last start.
Trail Blaze has been put up in the weights by just 3lbs for his Thirsk win and as he is still progressive over this trip this may not be enough to stop him winning again today. As the only confirmed front runner in the field there is also a good chance that he will get an uncontested lead and as he has shown in the past, he can be difficult to peg back. He has also won at Ayr earlier this season and has raced here three times in total so will be familiar with the surroundings. By far the most likely winner a current price of 9/4 looks more than reasonable.