Good ground key to Joviality’s chances

2:20 – Newmarket – NAYEF JOEL STAKES (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Good 1m

The John Gosden trained Joviality takes a step down in grade after finishing 3rd in the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes at Arlington Park in Chicago on her last run.  The 4  year old bay filly was the best of the runners to go with the early pace and only finished 1 length behind the winner, which was all the more commendable as she did not get any cover.  Dropping in grade over a winning trip will give her every opportunity to get back on top today.

Joviality has won twice from her 10 racecourse starts and both wins have come at Group level on Good ground.  Her record in Good going is two wins and two 2nd places from 5 runs which helps to emphasise how important the underfoot conditions are for her.  The Racecourse Association gave the going as Good when the day’s going reports were put up on their website at 6:45 this morning.

Joviality runs over a trip of 1 mile today and she has won once and been placed once from five runs over the distance.  Her win at the distance came at Royal Ascot in June, which is a similarly stiff track to Newmarket, when she won the Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes.  She raced keenly as she always does and battled hard to see off the challenge of Chachamaidee.  The form of the race has worked out very well as Chachamaidee has won at Group 2 and Group 1 level since and the horses finishing 3rd and 4th have also won at Group level.

She is ridden by William Buick today who is stable jockey to John Gosden and has ridden her on all of her runs.  William is riding well at the moment and has a winning strike rate of 21.43% having ridden 12 winners from 56 rides over the last 14 days, including 2 winners from 4 rides for John Gosden at Newmarket yesterday.

The Gosden yard is also going well achieving an 18.75% winning strike rate over the last 14 days.  Joviality will need things to go her way this afternoon, but if she can get some cover from other horses the stiff mile at Newmarket allied with the Good ground are ideal conditions for her.  She has had a decent break of 41 days since her last run and as she has always given her running when coming back from a break should be up to fighting out the finish today.

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About freelanceracingwriter

I compose articles for racing media outlets based on current form and statistical analysis. I concentrate on trainers, jockeys and sire statistics on varying surfaces, track and draw bias, individual race and meeting trends and statistics. My fee is reasonable and I am happy to take commissions. If you would like to see a recent example of my work, please contact me and I will be pleased to oblige. I am also an experienced paddock judge and tweet my observations when I am on course at: http://twitter.com/PaddockTips
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